Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) — Human bird-flu infections may rise in
Asia as people handle more poultry for next week’s Lunar New Year
celebrations, according to a United Nations veterinarian who
tracks the virus in birds.
Health authorities in China, South Korea and Vietnam have
stepped up surveillance of H5N1 avian influenza among poultry
ahead of the festival, which starts Jan. 26. Production of
chickens and ducks swells as much as three times in the run-up to
the holiday, making outbreaks more likely, said
in Hanoi, Vietnam.
“It’s a little bit more of a tinderbox,” Gilbert said in a
telephone interview yesterday. “If it’s going to happen, it’s
more likely to happen now than in another two or three months.”
A flu pandemic of avian or other origin could kill 71
million people worldwide and lead to a “major global recession”
costing more than $3 trillion, according to a worst-case scenario
outlined by the World Bank in October.
Indonesia, which leads the world in human deaths from bird
flu, reported two more fatalities today. China has reported three
human deaths from the virus this year and Vietnam has reported
one case in a girl who recovered. Last week Nepal reported its
first outbreak of the virus among poultry.
In Vietnam, the nation with the most outbreaks of H5N1 in
birds since late 2003, cases in poultry surged in the lead-up to
the Lunar New Year every year from 2004 to 2007, FAO figures show.
The number of outbreaks in the country have dropped roughly by
half in the past two years, and no new infections in fowl have
been reported so far this year to the Paris-based
.
Health authorities have been monitoring H5N1 for more than a
decade for any sign that it’s becoming as contagious as seasonal
flu. While millions of birds have been infected, fewer than 400
people are reported to have contracted the illness, of which
almost 250 have died, according to the Geneva-based
.
The world is closer to another flu pandemic than at any time
since 1968, when the last of the previous century’s three
pandemics occurred, according to the WHO. The H5N1 virus has
spread to more than 60 countries and caused at least 6,500
poultry outbreaks since 2003.
.
Last Updated: January 21, 2009 02:59 EST